Tuesday 22 April 2008

Peak potash and peak food

Most folks are familiar with the peak oil movement but few have noticed another critical resource that seems to have peaked. Potash is one of three critical ingredients in fertilizers that are needed to continue the level of food production that feeds the world. Seems we haven't discovered any new potash reserves in quite awhile and this critical ingredient is in short supply around the world. The other two critical ingredients in common fertilizer mixes come from oil and natural gas. Oil we know is peaking now and natural gas is probably 10 to 15 years away from a peak. With Potash peaking as well we seem to be arriving at a trifecta of fertilizer shortages. Feeding the world is going to be nigh impossible without cheap fertilizers so we're now looking at peak food.

And holy moley - Nymex crude is breaking $120 a barrel today! This is going to be one long and expensive Summer. If this keeps up we'll see $6+/gallon gasoline in the US by mid-July.

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