Yada yada yada...

Been watching a debate on a few blogs the last couple of days on whether we're heading for "an inflationary recession" or a "deflationary depression". These guys banter back and forth like this is some kind of temporary condition and they just need to get a handle on which way it will go. The spiraling energy costs, food shortages, and other issues crawling across the planet aren't economic preconditions for future market growth. Though I'm sure lots of folks will find lots of stuff to sell to lots of other folks the kind of banter that makes it seem like a short-term market correction is just plain silliness. One guy actually has a wager as to which way it will go. I wonder if he's betting on the famine and riot numbers in Africa as well? Jeesh...!

CNBC (or CNBS as it's often called) had Matthew Simmons on again, the author of "Twilight In The Desert". He has been warning folks for years that global oil supply was nearing a peak and he had the data to prove it. Usually he looks like the cat that ate the canary and defends himself against all "perpetual oil" pundits they throw at him. This morning he looked like the kid who cried wolf when the wolf showed up. Simmons actually made the argument that peak oil could be an economic stimulus. Whaaat? And I suppose you think famine will spawn new industries too, right Matt?

Come on folks, the days of stable markets are about to get kicked in the proverbial teeth. I'm not saying that the fundamentals of market economics or the age-old rules of business behavior have changed. But the modern concept of them is about to take a turn for the chaotic at the very least. Volatility in all things is making a run for the stratosphere and the idea of a "global wheat market" or global anything without an economic means of transport is going to make it very difficult to price anything accurately. Wheat may be $10 a bushel in California and $50 in Bangladesh (or the reverse) and the combined effects of famine, local politics, and sky-high transportation costs are going to make anything like the transparency we have now seem like the good old days.

Thought this is only the beginning of a major planetary adjustment, and one that may take hundreds of years or more to complete, it's not going to be like the frog in the slowly heated pan. Things are going to jump rapidly due to the major back pressure of the billions of folks that need food, energy, and medicine every single day of the year. The thought of trying to pick the highest profit point in all of this is, well, like betting on the outcome of your own heart transplant. Seems kind of pointless and superficial in the grander scheme of things.